The three most likely scenarios based on the current price action are listed below. The number of options contracts available on May 13 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side makes up the theoretical profit:
- Between $27,000 and $30,000: 0 calls vs. 9,350 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $260 million.
- Between $30,000 and $32,000: 150 calls vs. 7,500 puts. The net result favors bears by $220 million.
- Between $32,000 and $33,000: 1,100 calls vs. 5,900 puts. The net result benefits put (bear) options by $150 million.
This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.